Cardinals' Offseason Plans: Evaluating Trades and Payroll Adjustments

As the St. Louis Cardinals look to trim payroll and shift focus towards younger players for the 2025 season, trading some of their higher-paid veterans has been a widely expected strategy. However, it appears unlikely that Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray will be traded, as they are unwilling to waive their no-trade clauses.

Nolan Arenado's Trade Possibility
Third baseman Nolan Arenado, however, is seemingly open to a trade, although he also has a no-trade clause that would require his approval for any deal. This leaves the Cardinals with limited flexibility in moving their more expensive players.

Potential Moves for Steven Matz and Ryan Helsley
One veteran player without trade protection is left-handed pitcher Steven Matz. According to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the Cardinals plan to "field interest" on both Matz and closer Ryan Helsley this winter.

• Ryan Helsley: Previously discussed by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco, Helsley’s trade candidacy comes with a high asking price from the Cardinals.
  
• Steven Matz: Matz, on the other hand, is seen as a more affordable option for teams. The 33-year-old is entering the final year of his contract in 2025, with $12.5 million due next season. Offloading Matz’s contract would reduce the Cardinals’ payroll projection from nearly $147 million to around $134 million, allowing the club to reallocate funds towards player development and potentially make modest upgrades in free agency.
  

Matz's Performance and Challenges
Despite the Cardinals’ interest in moving Matz, doing so might not be easy. Since joining St. Louis before the 2022 season, Matz has struggled with injuries and inconsistency, managing just 197 1/3 innings over 52 appearances (34 starts, 18 bullpen outings). His overall performance has been roughly league average, with a 4.47 ERA (95 ERA+), a 4.01 FIP, and a 21.9% strikeout rate.

Most of Matz’s solid work came during a mostly-healthy 2023 season, where he posted a 3.84 ERA (114 ERA+) and a 3.75 FIP in 105 innings. However, this was sandwiched between two less impressive seasons with ERAs over 5.00. In 2024, Matz recorded a 5.08 ERA with a 4.88 FIP in 44 1/3 innings, a 17.4% strikeout rate, and his worst walk rate since 2018 at 7.9%.

Financial Impact and Future Moves
The potential trade of Matz would significantly impact the Cardinals’ payroll, reducing it to a more manageable level and allowing for investment in player development. This financial flexibility could also facilitate bringing in new talent, such as a reunion with veteran right-hander Kyle Gibson or another pitching acquisition.

​The Cardinals' strategy this offseason will be pivotal in shaping their 2025 roster and their ability to compete. Whether or not they can successfully move Matz and make other strategic adjustments remains to be seen.