Luis Severino Likely to Decline Mets' Qualifying Offer, Seeking Multi-Year Deal

Right-hander Luis Severino is reportedly set to decline the qualifying offer extended to him by the New York Mets earlier this month, as per a report from Will Sammon of The Athletic. Despite Severino's affinity for playing in New York, he is expected to pursue a multi-year deal in free agency this winter.

Severino, 30, is entering free agency for the second consecutive year. His previous stint on the open market followed a difficult 2023 season with the Yankees, where he posted a 6.65 ERA over 89 1/3 innings. The Mets signed him to a one-year, $13 million deal, and the gamble paid off as Severino delivered a league-average performance with a 3.91 ERA (101 ERA+) and a 4.21 ERA in 182 innings. His strikeout rate stood at 21.2%, while his walk rate was a modest 7.9%. While these numbers are solid but not spectacular, they are comparable to other mid-rotation pitchers who have secured strong guarantees in free agency.

Given Severino's performance and market comparisons, it is not surprising that he would seek to surpass the one-year, $21.05 million qualifying offer. MLB Trade Rumors predicted a three-year, $51 million contract for Severino, comparable to the deal veteran right-hander Michael Wacha received from the Royals. Even a two-year deal similar to Nathan Eovaldi's $34 million contract with the Rangers could provide Severino with a higher overall guarantee than the qualifying offer while allowing flexibility for another free agency opportunity next winter.

With Severino poised to decline the qualifying offer, the Mets will need to either re-sign him or find a replacement for their rotation. The team also faces the potential loss of southpaws Sean Manaea and Jose Quintana, leaving only Kodai Senga and David Peterson confirmed for the 2025 rotation. The Mets, armed with financial flexibility and momentum from their unexpected NLCS appearance, could aim higher in free agency. Top free-agent starters like Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, and Max Fried are all expected to be available. Additionally, the Mets might explore the trade market for rotation upgrades, having already been linked to White Sox southpaw Garrett Crochet.

​As the offseason unfolds, Severino's decision and the Mets' subsequent moves will be key storylines to watch. The team's ability to navigate these challenges will significantly impact their prospects for the upcoming season.